← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 57% | 34% | 1.70 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 24% | 4.02 | fair |
| Doncaster win | 19% | 42% | 5.04 | value: +113% ⚠ |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.75 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Doncaster −0.75 | 50% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Matthew Smith · Doncaster |
| 45' | 🟨 | Brendon Galloway · Plymouth |
| 51' | 🟨 | Jordan Houghton · Plymouth |
| 54' | ⚽ | Jordy Hiwula · Doncaster |
| 57' | 🟨 | Tiago Çukur · Doncaster |
| 68' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Tommy Rowe · Doncaster |
| 83' | 🟨 | Ethan Galbraith · Doncaster |
| 89' | 🟨 | Aidan Barlow · Doncaster |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Cooper · Plymouth |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Garrick · Plymouth |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Conor Grant · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 847.00 | 147.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.34 |
| elo | 1429.26 | 1396.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.35 | -12.15 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | -1.32 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.49 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.60 | 48.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.77 |
| league points | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 66.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 51.00 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.67 | — |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 0.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 7.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.54 | -0.88 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 2.20 |
| state index | 0.38 | -0.77 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | 0.47 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.14 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.00 |