← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 25, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Edwards
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe win | 38% | 60% | 2.54 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Accrington win | 34% | 19% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Morecambe +0 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Accrington +0 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
| 19' | 🟨 | Liam Gibson · Morecambe |
| 19' | ⚽ (pen) | Colby Bishop · Accrington |
| 21' | ⚽ | Matt Butcher · Accrington |
| 27' | ⚽ | Adam Phillips · Morecambe |
| 38' | 🟥 | Shane McLoughlin · Morecambe |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ethan Hamilton · Accrington |
| 68' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Accrington |
| 81' | ⚽ | Cole Stockton · Morecambe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 25 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Morecambe | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.80 |
| venue | Mazuma Stadium |
| coach days | 86.00 | 3281.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1403.42 | 1430.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.34 | -17.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.85 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.50 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.47 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | — |
| league points | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.00 | 63.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.03 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.85 | 24.09 |
| state index | -0.26 | -0.51 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -1.02 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |