← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 55% | 60% | 1.76 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.75 | fair |
| Accrington win | 19% | 18% | 5.28 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.75 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Sunderland −0.75 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.87 |
| Under | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Dan Neil · Sunderland |
| 25' | 🟨 | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 25' | 🟨 | Harry Pell · Accrington |
| 30' | ⚽ | Michael Nottingham · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Michael Nottingham · Accrington |
| 50' | 🟨 | Tom Flanagan · Sunderland |
| 58' | ⚽ | Carl Winchester · Sunderland |
| 71' | 🟨 | David Morgan · Accrington |
| 78' | 🟨 | Elliot Embleton · Sunderland |
| 86' | 🟨 | Alex Pritchard · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 21 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 15 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 284.00 | 3267.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.85 | 1.96 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1589.94 | 1453.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.09 | 20.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.23 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.80 | 66.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.63 |
| league points | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.00 | 58.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.28 | -1.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.76 | 25.16 |
| state index | 0.62 | 0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |