← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury win | 40% | 39% | 2.46 | fair |
| Crewe win | 30% | 31% | 3.22 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Crewe −0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Shrewsbury −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.63 |
| Over | 41% | 2.36 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3' | 🟨 | Rio Adebisi · Crewe |
| 19' | ⚽ | Sam Cosgrove · Shrewsbury |
| 35' | 🟨 | Matthew Pennington · Shrewsbury |
| 36' | 🟨 | Luke Murphy · Crewe |
| 44' | ⚽ | Mikael Mandron · Crewe |
| 57' | 🟨 | Ethan Ebanks-Landell · Shrewsbury |
| 67' | 🟨 | Aaron Pierre · Shrewsbury |
| 71' | 🟨 | Scott Robertson · Crewe |
| 87' | 🟨 | Kayne Ramsay · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Daniel Udoh · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 16 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |
| 🟨 |
| Donervon Daniels · Crewe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 314.00 | 1714.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.51 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1367.99 | 1425.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.22 | -40.27 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.10 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.72 |
| league points | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.60 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 14.00 |
| season ppg | 0.50 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| state index | -0.91 | -1.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |