← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Sep 11, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 43% | 52% | 2.26 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 29% | 25% | 3.40 | fair |
| Bolton win | 28% | 23% | 3.47 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Bolton −0.25 | 50% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Macauley Bonne · Ipswich |
| 10' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 13' | 🟨 | Kane Vincent-Young · Ipswich |
| 18' | ⚽ (pen) | Eoin Doyle · Bolton |
| 20' | 🟨 | Lloyd Isgrove · Bolton |
| 24' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 30' | ⚽ (og) | Ricardo Santos · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 47' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 56' | ⚽ | George Johnston · Bolton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 7 | Shots | 14 |
| 3 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.17 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 194.00 | 437.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 3.70 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1433.63 | 1431.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.68 | 18.72 |
| eye test v1 | -0.02 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.23 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.90 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| league points | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 0.60 | 1.50 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.54 | 0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.56 | 26.87 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | 0.75 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 299.90 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |