← EFL League One 2021-22 · Sat, Aug 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Wright
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 40% | 53% | 2.38 | value: +26% |
| Bolton win | 31% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 48% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | William Nightingale · AFC Wimbledon |
| 22' | 🟨 | Nik Tzanev · AFC Wimbledon |
| 23' | ⚽ (pen) | Eoin Doyle · Bolton |
| 27' | ⚽ | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Sheehan · Bolton |
| 48' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · Bolton |
| 53' | 🟨 | Gethin Jones · Bolton |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ben Heneghan · AFC Wimbledon |
| 65' | 🟨 | Nesta Guinness-Walker · AFC Wimbledon |
| 74' | ⚽ (pen) | Aaron Pressley · AFC Wimbledon |
| 75' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.27 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |
| ⚽ |
| Adedapo Awokoya-Mebude · AFC Wimbledon |
| 80' | 🟨 | Ayoub Assal · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 194.00 | 409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.54 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1419.77 | 1412.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.06 | 21.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.34 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 63.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.83 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 75.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 57.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.21 | 0.40 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.21 | 28.19 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.11 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |