← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sun, May 9, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: T. Bramall
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Oxford win | 62% | 53% | 1.55 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 22% | 4.63 | value: +4% |
| Burton win | 16% | 25% | 6.50 | value: +62% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Oxford −1 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burton −1 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 6 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand