← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, May 1, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 47% | 48% | 2.01 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.59 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 25% | 28% | 3.88 | value: +8% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln −0.5 | 51% | 1.88 |
| Peterboro −0.5 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.92 |
| Over | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Anthony Scully · Lincoln |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Jorge Grant · Lincoln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Anthony Scully · Lincoln |
| 55' | 🟨 | Jack Taylor · Peterboro |
| 56' | 🟨 | Liam Bridcutt · Lincoln |
| 65' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 75' | ⚽ | Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro |
| 90' | 🟨 | Conor McGrandles · Lincoln |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jorge Grant · Lincoln |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Lewis Montsma · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 851.00 | 608.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.66 | 0.85 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1584.96 | 1516.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 5.04 | 33.21 |
| eye test v1 | 0.82 | -0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.10 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.99 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.70 |
| league points | 83.00 | 75.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 73.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.89 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.00 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.18 | 23.04 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |