← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burton win | 35% | 35% | 2.81 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 34% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 27' | 🟨 | Josh Earl · Burton |
| 35' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Burton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 45' | 🟨 | Harrison Biggins · Fleetwood Town |
| 62' | ⚽ | Sam Finley · Fleetwood Town |
| 72' | ⚽ | Thomas Hamer · Burton |
| 74' | 🟨 | Kane Hemmings · Burton |
| 78' | 🟨 | Terry Taylor · Burton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Kane Hemmings · Burton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jordan Rossiter · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| Kane Hemmings · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 116.00 | 85.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.33 | 2.07 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1468.05 | 1495.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.86 | -3.83 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.40 | 70.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | — |
| league points | 53.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 72.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.00 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.23 | 1.37 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.07 | -0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 25.56 | 25.99 |
| state index | -0.11 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.98 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |