← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Backhouse
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Burton win | 35% | 35% | 2.81 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 34% | 38% | 2.80 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 31% | 28% | 3.16 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Burton +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.61 |
| Over | 40% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand