← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Brook
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon win | 46% | 44% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.60 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 26% | 32% | 3.80 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| Rochdale −0.25 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Luke O'Neill · AFC Wimbledon |
| 41' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Rochdale |
| 57' | ⚽ | Gabriel Osho · Rochdale |
| 61' | ⚽ | Jack Rudoni · AFC Wimbledon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Ollie Palmer · AFC Wimbledon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Matt Done · Rochdale |
| 73' | ⚽ | Jimmy Keohane · Rochdale |
| 85' | 🟨 | Jimmy McNulty · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stephen Humphrys · Rochdale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Joe Pigott · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 14 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Wimbledon | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Plough Lane |
| coach days | 85.00 | 788.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1419.91 | 1378.66 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 72.25 | 37.71 |
| eye test v1 | 1.36 | 0.71 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.53 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.50 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.71 |
| league points | 49.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.00 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | -0.44 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.40 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.31 | 25.32 |
| state index | 0.81 | -0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -2.00 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.80 |