← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 27, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 46% | 47% | 2.07 | fair |
| Accrington win | 27% | 29% | 3.60 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.72 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington +0.5 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth +0.5 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.85 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 15' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Accrington |
| 43' | ⚽ | Cameron Burgess · Accrington |
| 49' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
| 54' | ⚽ | Ryan Williams · Portsmouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 86' | 🟨 | Andy Cannon · Portsmouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | John Marquis · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 13 |
| 10 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| coach days | 3130.00 | 57.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.63 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1424.49 | 1499.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.02 | -41.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.38 | 0.00 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 62.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 61.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 57.80 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.56 | 0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.24 | 27.08 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.42 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | 0.58 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |