← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 60% | 62% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 22% | 4.00 | fair |
| Accrington win | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Sunderland −1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Charlie Wyke · Sunderland |
| 11' | ⚽ | Charlie Wyke · Sunderland |
| 43' | 🟨 | Carl Winchester · Sunderland |
| 51' | ⚽ | Colby Bishop · Accrington |
| 62' | 🟨 | Grant Leadbitter · Sunderland |
| 68' | ⚽ (og) | Luke O'Nien · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | Michael Nottingham · Accrington |
| 83' | ⚽ | Max Power · Sunderland |
| 85' | ⚽ | Sean McConville · Accrington |
| 87' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 144.00 | 3127.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.65 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1588.37 | 1418.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.52 | -14.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.13 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.41 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.00 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.57 |
| league points | 72.00 | 61.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.20 | 61.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 3.80 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.76 | -1.63 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 27.77 | 26.24 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.62 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.63 | -1.42 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |