← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 20, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull win | 44% | 43% | 2.19 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.34 | fair |
| Sunderland win | 27% | 27% | 3.61 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hull −0.25 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Sunderland −0.25 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.31 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jordan Jones · Sunderland |
| 16' | 🟨 | Bailey Wright · Sunderland |
| 20' | 🟨 | Charlie Wyke · Sunderland |
| 28' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Hull |
| 34' | ⚽ (pen) | Grant Leadbitter · Sunderland |
| 50' | 🟨 | Keane Lewis-Potter · Hull |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mallik Wilks · Hull |
| 64' | ⚽ | Josh Magennis · Hull |
| 89' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 14 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 17 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hull | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | KCOM Stadium |
| coach days | 689.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1612.01 | 1585.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.74 | -28.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 69.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| league points | 82.00 | 71.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 11.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.00 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.95 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.22 | 28.78 |
| state index | 0.94 | -0.19 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| travel km | — | 145.70 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |