← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: S. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale win | 37% | 34% | 2.60 | fair |
| Accrington win | 35% | 43% | 2.75 | value: +17% |
| Draw | 28% | 24% | 3.51 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Accrington +0 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.92 |
| Under | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Jimmy Keohane · Rochdale |
| 13' | ⚽ | Ben Barclay · Accrington |
| 22' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · Accrington |
| 29' | 🟨 | Ryan McLaughlin · Rochdale |
| 46' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Accrington |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jake Beesley · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Conor Shaughnessy · Rochdale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rochdale | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Crown Oil Arena |
| coach days | 778.00 | 3120.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 1.42 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1345.24 | 1424.90 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.31 | -21.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.22 | -0.18 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 58.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
| league points | 36.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 58.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 46.40 |
| rest days | 3.73 | 3.73 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.45 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | -1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.25 | 26.33 |
| state index | -0.53 | -0.96 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.34 | -1.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |