← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Apr 17, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Coy
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Portsmouth win | 44% | 45% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.44 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +4% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Portsmouth +0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Milton Keynes Dons +0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.90 |
| Over | 48% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 19 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand