← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Apr 13, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Madley
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 41% | 50% | 2.38 | value: +20% |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 32% | 25% | 3.00 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 25% | 3.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Lincoln −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.87 |
| Under | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Regan Poole · Lincoln |
| 20' | 🟨 | Brennan Johnson · Lincoln |
| 39' | 🟨 | Ethan Laird · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 48' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Lincoln |
| 53' | ⚽ | Brennan Johnson · Lincoln |
| 59' | ⚽ (pen) | Brennan Johnson · Lincoln |
| 66' | 🟨 | David Kasumu · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 72' | 🟨 | Harry Darling · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 73' | ⚽ (og) | Andrew Fisher · Lincoln |
| 87' | 🟨 | Daniel Harvie · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 7 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 0 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 590.00 | 529.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.52 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1482.82 | 1452.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.58 | 13.65 |
| eye test v1 | -0.64 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.06 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 53.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.56 |
| league points | 63.00 | 55.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 86.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 67.20 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | 2.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 22.88 | 25.75 |
| state index | -0.90 | -0.14 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 1.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |