← EFL League One 2020-21 · Fri, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Kettle
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 53% | 50% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.76 | fair |
| Oxford win | 21% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +9% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| Oxford −0.5 | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 19' | 🟨 | Conor McLaughlin · Sunderland |
| 21' | ⚽ | James Henry · Oxford |
| 25' | 🟨 | Brandon Barker · Oxford |
| 25' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Oxford |
| 45' | ⚽ | Lynden Gooch · Sunderland |
| 54' | 🟨 | James Henry · Oxford |
| 61' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Oxford |
| 61' | 🟥 | Mark Sykes · Oxford |
| 81' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 81' | ⚽ | Aiden McGeady · Sunderland |
| 89' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 6 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 7 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| Ross Stewart · Sunderland |
| 90' | 🟨 | Max Power · Sunderland |
| 90' | ⚽ | Max Power · Sunderland |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 122.00 | 1128.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.66 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1614.19 | 1518.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.24 | -20.51 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.94 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.50 | 56.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| league points | 67.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 18.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.00 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 6.76 |
| scorer concentration | 0.47 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 1.86 | 1.51 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 28.04 | 24.71 |
| state index | 0.98 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.64 | -0.43 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |