← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 20, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 54% | 56% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.75 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 19% | 23% | 5.01 | value: +15% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rochdale +0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Peterboro +0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.77 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 45' | ⚽ | Sammie Szmodics · Peterboro |
| 55' | ⚽ (pen) | Stephen Humphrys · Rochdale |
| 58' | 🟨 | Oliver Rathbone · Rochdale |
| 77' | 🟨 | Frankie Kent · Peterboro |
| 87' | ⚽ | Jake Beesley · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Rochdale |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jimmy Keohane · Rochdale |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 1 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rochdale | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Crown Oil Arena |
| coach days | 750.00 | 809.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.32 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1337.93 | 1577.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -22.90 | -21.77 |
| eye test v1 | -1.06 | -0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.10 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| league points | 31.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.80 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 54.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 0.89 | 1.91 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 24.90 | 25.36 |
| state index | -1.15 | -0.10 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |