← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Whitestone
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 47% | 39% | 2.03 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.60 | fair |
| Accrington win | 26% | 34% | 3.80 | value: +31% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Accrington −0.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.83 |
| Under | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Cameron Jerome · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paul Smyth · Accrington |
| 47' | 🟨 | Cameron Burgess · Accrington |
| 49' | 🟨 | Ben Barclay · Accrington |
| 55' | ⚽ | Cameron Jerome · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 57' | ⚽ | Dion Charles · Accrington |
| 62' | ⚽ (og) | Andrew Surman · Accrington |
| 67' | 🟨 | Harvey Rodgers · Accrington |
| 80' | 🟨 | David Morgan · Accrington |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matt O'Riley · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 7 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Milton Keynes Dons | Accrington |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.58 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadium mk |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 498.00 | 3085.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.10 | 3.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1429.38 | 1453.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -48.59 | -38.80 |
| eye test v1 | -0.26 | -1.24 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 51.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.61 | 0.72 |
| league points | 42.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 60.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.83 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.90 | -1.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.40 |
| state index | -1.20 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.94 | -0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |