← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Feb 23, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 36% | 33% | 2.73 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 34% | 37% | 2.85 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons +0 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Shrewsbury +0 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.65 |
| Over | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sean Goss · Shrewsbury |
| 8' | ⚽ (pen) | Oliver Norburn · Shrewsbury |
| 20' | ⚽ (pen) | Curtis Main · Shrewsbury |
| 22' | ⚽ | Will Grigg · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 57' | ⚽ | Sean Goss · Shrewsbury |
| 59' | 🟨 | Cameron Jerome · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 63' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Shrewsbury |
| 81' | 🟨 | Joshua Daniels · Shrewsbury |
| 82' | ⚽ | Charlie Brown · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | 🟨 | David Edwards · Shrewsbury |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 9 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 16 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |
| 🟨 |
| Harry Darling · Milton Keynes Dons |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0.80 |
| coach days | 114.00 | 480.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1458.47 | 1477.98 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.78 | 52.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.49 | 0.46 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.10 | 54.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.55 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.72 |
| league points | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 68.20 | 81.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.40 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 1.08 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.20 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.61 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.37 | 1.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |