← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 39% | 58% | 2.45 | value: +43% ⚠ |
| Swindon win | 32% | 20% | 3.02 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 21% | 3.52 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Doncaster +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Fejiri Okenabirhie · Doncaster |
| 33' | 🟨 | Fejiri Okenabirhie · Doncaster |
| 45' | ⚽ | Fejiri Okenabirhie · Doncaster |
| 52' | 🟨 | Elliot Simões · Doncaster |
| 64' | 🟨 | Dion Conroy · Swindon |
| 66' | 🟨 | Dominic Thompson · Swindon |
| 71' | 🟨 | Andy Butler · Doncaster |
| 73' | ⚽ | Hallam Hope · Swindon |
| 76' | 🟨 | Taylor Curran · Swindon |
| 85' | 🟨 | Reece James · Doncaster |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 7 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Swindon | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The County Ground |
| 🟨 |
| Anthony Greaves · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 76.00 | 565.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1361.85 | 1558.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.60 | 15.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.93 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.37 | -0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.50 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| league points | 20.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.60 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 24.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.95 | 1.83 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.49 | 1.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| state index | -0.78 | 0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |