← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe win | 43% | 43% | 2.25 | fair |
| Plymouth win | 31% | 30% | 3.13 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.79 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth +0.25 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Crewe +0.25 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.58 |
| Under | 39% | 2.49 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 26' | 🟨 | Kelland Watts · Plymouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 60' | 🟨 | Jerome Opoku · Plymouth |
| 64' | ⚽ | Oliver Finney · Crewe |
| 74' | 🟨 | Danny Mayor · Plymouth |
| 78' | 🟨 | Panutche Camará · Plymouth |
| 80' | 🟨 | Luke Offord · Crewe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Panutche Camará · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟥 | Panutche Camará · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Crewe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Home Park |
| coach days | 595.00 | 1476.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 3.75 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1411.79 | 1475.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.48 | 21.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.38 | 0.55 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.70 | 69.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| league points | 26.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 81.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.20 | 59.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 13.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.50 | 1.07 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 24.74 | 23.37 |
| state index | -0.24 | 0.09 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.12 | 0.92 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |