← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Jan 9, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: W. Finnie
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 36% | 37% | 2.68 | fair |
| Lincoln win | 35% | 36% | 2.74 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.46 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Lincoln +0 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 51% | 1.88 |
| Over | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ (og) | Timothy Eyoma · Peterboro |
| 16' | 🟨 | Adam Jackson · Lincoln |
| 21' | 🟨 | Liam Bridcutt · Lincoln |
| 23' | 🟨 | Nathan Thompson · Peterboro |
| 49' | ⚽ | Anthony Scully · Lincoln |
| 63' | 🟨 | Reece Brown · Peterboro |
| 66' | 🟨 | Nathan Thompson · Peterboro |
| 66' | 🟥 | Nathan Thompson · Peterboro |
| 80' | 🟨 | Timothy Eyoma · Lincoln |
| 89' | 🟨 | Frankie Kent · Peterboro |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Peterboro |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | LNER Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| James Jones · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 496.00 | 739.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 2.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1506.64 | 1549.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.64 | -13.99 |
| eye test v1 | -0.16 | -0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.68 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.40 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 41.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.20 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 6.90 | 24.70 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.05 | 1.78 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 0.41 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |