← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 29, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: B. Huxtable
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 40% | 30% | 2.41 | fair |
| Oxford win | 33% | 46% | 3.00 | value: +37% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.57 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Plymouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.75 |
| Under | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | ⚽ | Panutche Camará · Plymouth |
| 32' | 🟨 | Liam Kelly · Oxford |
| 37' | ⚽ | Josh Ruffels · Oxford |
| 65' | 🟨 | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 74' | ⚽ | Sam Long · Oxford |
| 79' | 🟨 | Sean Clare · Oxford |
| 80' | 🟨 | Lewis MacLeod · Plymouth |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Olamide Shodipo · Oxford |
| 83' | 🟨 | Elliott Moore · Oxford |
| 84' | ⚽ (pen) | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 16 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| Sam Long · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 577.00 | 1034.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.75 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1411.38 | 1491.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.69 | 19.76 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.04 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 62.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | 0.92 |
| league points | 23.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.80 | 72.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.40 | 55.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.00 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| state index | -0.59 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.75 | 0.48 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |