← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 15, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Bond
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipswich win | 45% | 57% | 2.17 | value: +23% |
| Burton win | 28% | 19% | 3.47 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.58 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich −0.25 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Burton −0.25 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.84 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Keanan Bennetts · Ipswich |
| 21' | ⚽ | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 51' | 🟨 | Mark McGuinness · Ipswich |
| 53' | 🟨 | Kayden Jackson · Ipswich |
| 58' | 🟨 | Colin Daniel · Burton |
| 80' | ⚽ | Emyr Huws · Ipswich |
| 87' | 🟨 | Michael Bostwick · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Armando Dobra · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | John Brayford · Burton |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ryan Edwards · Burton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 18 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 1 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ipswich | Burton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.47 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Portman Road |
| coach days | 781.00 | 1841.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1472.58 | 1402.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.02 | 8.93 |
| eye test v1 | -0.76 | 0.13 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.01 | 0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 29.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 24.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 66.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 38.40 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 0.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.42 | -1.74 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 26.14 | 27.05 |
| state index | -0.70 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.89 | -1.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |