← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Dec 15, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: G. Salisbury
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan win | 37% | 56% | 2.72 | value: +53% ⚠ |
| Rochdale win | 34% | 20% | 2.87 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 23% | 3.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Wigan +0 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Rochdale +0 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 54% | 1.77 |
| Over | 46% | 2.14 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Kwadwo Baah · Rochdale |
| 18' | ⚽ | Matthew Lund · Rochdale |
| 37' | 🟨 | Adam Long · Wigan |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alex Perry · Wigan |
| 52' | 🟨 | Stephen Dooley · Rochdale |
| 55' | 🟨 | Curtis Tilt · Wigan |
| 58' | ⚽ | Stephen Dooley · Rochdale |
| 60' | 🟨 | Matthew Lund · Rochdale |
| 61' | 🟨 | Thomas James · Wigan |
| 64' | ⚽ (pen) | Alex Newby · Rochdale |
| 90' | ⚽ |
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 8 | Shots | 21 |
| 2 | On target | 11 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 9 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Wigan | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.53 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | DW Stadium |
| Alex Newby · Rochdale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 44.00 | 655.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.80 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1509.32 | 1372.02 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.76 | -7.03 |
| eye test v1 | -1.54 | -0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| league points | 14.00 | 16.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 60.20 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.80 | 52.20 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.60 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -2.12 | 0.49 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 27.42 | — |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.52 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |