← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Dec 12, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 49% | 62% | 1.95 | value: +22% |
| Draw | 27% | 24% | 3.69 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 24% | 14% | 4.07 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Charlton −0.5 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.87 |
| Over | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 37' | ⚽ | Conor Washington · Charlton |
| 42' | ⚽ | Joe Pigott · AFC Wimbledon |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dániel Csóka · AFC Wimbledon |
| 57' | 🟨 | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jack Rudoni · AFC Wimbledon |
| 63' | 🟨 | Connal Trueman · AFC Wimbledon |
| 64' | ⚽ | Jake Forster-Caskey · Charlton |
| 65' | ⚽ | Jonathan Williams · Charlton |
| 85' | ⚽ | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ben Purrington · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 10 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Charlton | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | The Valley |
| coach days | 1502.00 | 438.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.66 | 1.81 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1550.67 | 1399.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -27.37 | -0.55 |
| eye test v1 | -0.31 | -0.15 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| league points | 27.00 | 20.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 38.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.80 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.60 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -1.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 28.09 | 23.64 |
| state index | -0.24 | -0.52 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.28 | -1.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |