← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Nov 24, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: O. Yates
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 46% | 47% | 2.14 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.44 | fair |
| Burton win | 26% | 26% | 3.80 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0.25 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Burton +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.85 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Lucas Akins · Burton |
| 30' | 🟨 | Chris Gunter · Charlton |
| 39' | ⚽ | Joe Powell · Burton |
| 41' | ⚽ | Paul Smyth · Charlton |
| 53' | ⚽ | Sam Hughes · Burton |
| 61' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Charlton |
| 64' | 🟨 | Lucas Akins · Burton |
| 65' | 🟨 | Ben Watson · Charlton |
| 67' | ⚽ | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
| 76' | ⚽ | Charles Vernam · Burton |
| 80' | 🟨 |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 16 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Burton | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Pirelli Stadium |
| 81' | 🟨 | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1820.00 | 1484.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.53 | 2.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1374.12 | 1576.07 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.59 | 45.83 |
| eye test v1 | -1.00 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.82 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.77 |
| league points | 7.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 24.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 19.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.20 | 71.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 48.60 |
| rest days | 3.17 | 3.25 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 0.54 | 2.09 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 8.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.96 | -0.61 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.50 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.80 |
| state index | -1.45 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |