← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Nov 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Barrott
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 42% | 55% | 2.27 | value: +24% |
| Plymouth win | 30% | 22% | 3.20 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 23% | 3.63 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Plymouth −0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 49% | 1.97 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 51% | 1.88 |
| Under | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Sam Finley · Fleetwood Town |
| 7' | ⚽ | Callum Camps · Fleetwood Town |
| 24' | 🟨 | Danny Andrew · Fleetwood Town |
| 38' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Fleetwood Town |
| 52' | 🟨 | Niall Canavan · Plymouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | Charlie Mulgrew · Fleetwood Town |
| 67' | ⚽ | Callum Camps · Fleetwood Town |
| 74' | 🟨 | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 84' | ⚽ | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟨 | Frank Nouble · Plymouth |
| 90' |
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 10 |
| 11 | On target | 2 |
| 8 | Corners | 6 |
| 10 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fleetwood Town | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Highbury Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Niall Canavan · Plymouth |
| 90' | 🟥 | Niall Canavan · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 1024.00 | 539.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.86 | 4.06 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1544.94 | 1475.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 38.29 | 15.11 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | 0.47 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.20 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.00 | 79.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 1.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.20 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.76 | 24.84 |
| state index | 0.64 | -0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.58 | -0.15 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |