← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Nov 21, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlton win | 46% | 45% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 29% | 3.55 | value: +3% |
| Gillingham win | 26% | 26% | 3.70 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Charlton +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Gillingham +0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.87 |
| Over | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | 🟨 | Marcus Maddison · Charlton |
| 66' | 🟨 | Vadaine Oliver · Gillingham |
| 73' | ⚽ (pen) | Jordan Graham · Gillingham |
| 81' | 🟨 | Alex Gilbey · Charlton |
| 82' | ⚽ | Chuks Aneke · Charlton |
| 84' | 🟨 | Kyle Dempsey · Gillingham |
| 85' | 🟨 | Dominic Samuel · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Robbie McKenzie · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ian Maatsen · Charlton |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Charlton |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| coach days | 570.00 | 1481.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.05 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1448.55 | 1578.04 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -39.85 | 56.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.74 | -0.76 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.05 | 0.56 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.80 |
| league points | 13.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.20 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 35.80 | 46.80 |
| rest days | 17.75 | 17.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 2.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | -0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.80 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -2.34 | -0.80 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.75 | 28.30 |
| state index | -0.75 | 0.94 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.42 | -0.19 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.40 |