← EFL League One 2020-21 · Tue, Nov 3, 07:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plymouth win | 47% | 53% | 2.01 | value: +7% |
| Swindon win | 27% | 24% | 3.66 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.88 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Swindon −0.5 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Plymouth −0.5 | 48% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.70 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Jack Payne · Swindon |
| 6' | ⚽ | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 7' | ⚽ | Joe Edwards · Plymouth |
| 10' | ⚽ | Hallam Hope · Swindon |
| 14' | 🟨 | Tyrese Fornah · Plymouth |
| 23' | ⚽ | Anthony Grant · Swindon |
| 25' | ⚽ | Luke Jephcott · Plymouth |
| 38' | 🟨 | Jonny Smith · Swindon |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jonny Smith · Swindon |
| 45' | 🟥 | Jonny Smith · Swindon |
| 62' | 🟨 |
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 23 | Shots | 7 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Plymouth | Swindon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Home Park |
| Matthew Smith · Swindon |
| 76' | 🟨 | Ryan Hardie · Plymouth |
| 89' | ⚽ | Conor Grant · Plymouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 521.00 | 2.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.18 | 2.78 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.47 |
| elo | 1463.76 | 1405.67 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 21.52 | -30.09 |
| eye test v1 | 0.03 | -0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.26 | 1.42 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.59 |
| league points | 15.00 | 9.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 74.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.97 | 3.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.10 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 24.89 | 28.20 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.86 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |