← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 31, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 56% | 57% | 1.83 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.80 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 18% | 18% | 5.75 | value: +5% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury −0.75 | 52% | 1.90 |
| Peterboro −0.75 | 48% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.76 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Harry Burgoyne · Shrewsbury |
| 16' | ⚽ (pen) | Jonson Clarke-Harris · Peterboro |
| 18' | ⚽ | Joshua Daniels · Shrewsbury |
| 42' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 45' | 🟥 | Josh Vela · Shrewsbury |
| 50' | 🟨 | Reece Brown · Peterboro |
| 58' | 🟨 | Oliver Norburn · Shrewsbury |
| 69' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 77' | 🟨 | Ethan Ebanks-Landell · Shrewsbury |
| 80' | ⚽ | Siriki Dembélé · Peterboro |
| 84' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Sammie Szmodics · Peterboro |
| 88' | ⚽ | Jack Taylor · Peterboro |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 669.00 | 700.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.36 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1582.71 | 1381.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 36.83 | -16.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.41 | -1.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.44 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 49.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.67 |
| league points | 19.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 69.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 56.20 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.80 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 2.11 | 0.75 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.13 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 3.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.20 |
| squad age | 25.37 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.74 | -0.65 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.00 | 0.62 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |