← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lewis
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland win | 45% | 47% | 2.16 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.25 | fair |
| Portsmouth win | 25% | 24% | 4.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.70 |
| Over | 42% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Portsmouth |
| 10' | ⚽ | Charlie Wyke · Sunderland |
| 19' | 🟨 | Ryan Williams · Portsmouth |
| 25' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
| 70' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 80' | 🟨 | Callum Johnson · Portsmouth |
| 84' | 🟨 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 84' | 🟥 | Luke O'Nien · Sunderland |
| 85' | ⚽ (pen) | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Sunderland | Portsmouth |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadium of Light |
| coach days | 389.00 | 1241.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.92 | 2.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1577.56 | 1563.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 41.59 | 9.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.00 | 0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.41 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 58.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.82 | — |
| league points | 14.00 | 11.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.60 | 69.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 3.83 | 3.85 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 2.33 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.38 | -0.70 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 28.18 | — |
| state index | 0.94 | 0.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| travel km | — | 458.40 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |