← EFL League One 2020-21 · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 41% | 32% | 2.38 | fair |
| Gillingham win | 30% | 39% | 3.21 | value: +26% |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.37 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham +0.25 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Fleetwood Town +0.25 | 49% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.19 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Gillingham |
| 41' | 🟨 | John Akinde · Gillingham |
| 66' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Fleetwood Town |
| 70' | 🟨 | Dominic Samuel · Gillingham |
| 83' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Gillingham |
| 83' | 🟥 | Connor Ogilvie · Gillingham |
| 87' | 🟨 | Jay Matete · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Graham · Gillingham |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ched Evans · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 2 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 14 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 542.00 | 996.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.90 | 3.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1473.38 | 1506.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.32 | -27.35 |
| eye test v1 | -0.92 | -0.27 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | 0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 55.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.29 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.87 |
| league points | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.60 | 76.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 36.60 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 3.77 | 3.75 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.38 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -2.63 | 0.43 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 25.81 | 28.48 |
| state index | -0.42 | -0.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.99 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |