← EFL League One 2019-20 · Tue, Mar 10, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: D. Drysdale
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 47% | 51% | 2.07 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 28% | 26% | 3.50 | fair |
| Fleetwood Town win | 25% | 23% | 3.95 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth −0.25 | 54% | 1.77 |
| Fleetwood Town −0.25 | 46% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 58% | 1.66 |
| Over | 42% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | 🟨 | Glenn Whelan · Fleetwood Town |
| 19' | ⚽ | Barrie McKay · Fleetwood Town |
| 36' | ⚽ | Sean Raggett · Portsmouth |
| 43' | 🟨 | Lewis Gibson · Fleetwood Town |
| 48' | ⚽ (og) | Harry Souttar · Portsmouth |
| 55' | ⚽ | Harry Souttar · Fleetwood Town |
| 68' | 🟨 | Ronan Curtis · Portsmouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Callum Connolly · Fleetwood Town |
| 77' | 🟨 | Barrie McKay · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ellis Harrison · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 9 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 10 |
| 13 | Fouls | 18 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| coach days | 1013.00 | 768.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 2.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1564.77 | 1533.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -4.84 | 28.56 |
| eye test v1 | 0.01 | -1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.58 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.18 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| league points | 59.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.60 | 61.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 43.60 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -1.78 | -1.93 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| state index | 0.45 | 0.44 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.36 | -0.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |