← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Mar 7, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 40% | 38% | 2.45 | fair |
| Shrewsbury win | 31% | 33% | 3.20 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.30 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Shrewsbury +0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Oxford +0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.74 |
| Over | 44% | 2.18 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Shrewsbury |
| 12' | ⚽ | Daniel Udoh · Shrewsbury |
| 34' | ⚽ | Callum Lang · Shrewsbury |
| 35' | 🟨 | Josh Vela · Shrewsbury |
| 35' | 🟥 | Josh Vela · Shrewsbury |
| 45' | ⚽ | Marcus Browne · Oxford |
| 59' | ⚽ | Daniel Agyei · Oxford |
| 62' | 🟨 | Ethan Ebanks-Landell · Shrewsbury |
| 66' | 🟨 | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 87' | 🟨 | David Edwards · Shrewsbury |
| 88' |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 18 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 10 |
| 15 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Shrewsbury | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.60 |
| venue | Montgomery Waters Meadow |
| ⚽ |
| Josh Ruffels · Oxford |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 462.00 | 737.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.62 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.59 |
| elo | 1409.05 | 1529.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.51 | 25.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.11 | -0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.57 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.10 | 61.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 1.58 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| league points | 41.00 | 57.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 63.40 | 68.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.00 | 52.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.68 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.50 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| state index | -0.44 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.60 | -0.23 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |