← EFL League One 2019-20 · Tue, Feb 25, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Johnson
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth win | 54% | 62% | 1.79 | value: +11% |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.92 | fair |
| Milton Keynes Dons win | 21% | 15% | 4.75 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Dons −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Portsmouth −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Andy Cannon · Portsmouth |
| 45' | ⚽ | Alex Gilbey · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 49' | ⚽ | John Marquis · Portsmouth |
| 52' | 🟨 | Christian Burgess · Portsmouth |
| 58' | 🟨 | Andy Cannon · Portsmouth |
| 68' | 🟨 | Dean Lewington · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 86' | 🟥 | Carlton Morris · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 89' | 🟨 | Regan Poole · Milton Keynes Dons |
| 90' | ⚽ | Marcus Harness · Portsmouth |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Portsmouth | Milton Keynes Dons |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Fratton Park |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 999.00 | 116.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.87 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1566.07 | 1397.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.05 | 36.81 |
| eye test v1 | -0.80 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.30 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.80 |
| league points | 53.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 59.20 | 78.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.71 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.60 | 0.82 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.42 | 26.21 |
| state index | 0.56 | 0.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.63 | 0.74 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |