← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Feb 15, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Salisbury
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rotherham win | 73% | 65% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.50 | value: +18% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 9% | 13% | 10.25 | value: +35% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| AFC Wimbledon −1.5 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Rotherham −1.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.65 |
| Under | 42% | 2.32 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 5 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 6 |
| 18 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |