← EFL League One 2019-20 · Tue, Feb 11, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: C. Hicks
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Ipswich win | 46% | 47% | 2.08 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 29% | 3.40 | fair |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 25% | 23% | 3.87 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Ipswich +0.25 | 54% | 1.78 |
| AFC Wimbledon +0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Under | 60% | 1.62 |
| Over | 40% | 2.39 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 14 |
| 0 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | The Cherry Red Records Stadium |