← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Oldham
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln win | 35% | 24% | 2.80 | fair |
| Ipswich win | 33% | 43% | 2.94 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.10 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Lincoln +0 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Ipswich +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 63% | 1.52 |
| Over | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Harry Anderson · Lincoln |
| 32' | ⚽ | Luke Garbutt · Ipswich |
| 43' | 🟨 | Gwion Edwards · Ipswich |
| 45' | ⚽ | Tyler Walker · Lincoln |
| 47' | 🟨 | Freddie Sears · Ipswich |
| 48' | 🟨 | Andre Dozzell · Ipswich |
| 51' | 🟨 | Michael Bostwick · Lincoln |
| 59' | ⚽ (og) | Harry Toffolo · Ipswich |
| 72' | ⚽ | Tyler Walker · Lincoln |
| 79' | ⚽ | Michael Bostwick · Lincoln |
| 83' | ⚽ |
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 20 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Lincoln | Ipswich |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.14 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| venue | Sincil Bank |
| Will Keane · Ipswich |
| 90' | 🟨 | Josh Vickers · Lincoln |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jake Hesketh · Lincoln |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 119.00 | 429.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 3.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1422.13 | 1494.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.70 | -24.32 |
| eye test v1 | -1.67 | -1.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.15 | -0.47 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.40 | 59.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| league points | 24.00 | 37.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 69.00 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 59.60 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.91 | -0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.40 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| squad age | 26.63 | 27.53 |
| state index | -0.31 | -0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | 0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.18 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.14 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |