← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sun, Dec 29, 01:00 PM UTC · ref: D. Rock
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 59% | 50% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 25% | 4.20 | value: +7% |
| Rochdale win | 17% | 25% | 5.80 | value: +42% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Gillingham −0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Rochdale −0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.74 |
| Over | 45% | 2.17 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Jimmy Keohane · Rochdale |
| 57' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Rochdale |
| 67' | 🟨 | Callum Camps · Rochdale |
| 69' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Rochdale |
| 79' | 🟨 | Robert Sánchez · Rochdale |
| 81' | 🟨 | Oliver Lee · Gillingham |
| 86' | ⚽ | Connor Ogilvie · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Stuart O'Keefe · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Connor Ogilvie · Gillingham |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Williams · Rochdale |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 16 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Jordan Williams · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟥 | Jordan Williams · Rochdale |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 242.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.00 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.37 |
| elo | 1449.01 | 1363.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 15.93 | -20.12 |
| eye test v1 | -0.83 | -0.75 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.61 |
| league points | 29.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 57.00 | 73.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 2.92 | 2.92 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.32 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | -7.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | -2.52 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| state index | 0.19 | -0.91 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.68 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |