← EFL League One 2019-20 · Thu, Dec 26, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Haines
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 52% | 41% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 27% | 3.75 | fair |
| Rochdale win | 21% | 32% | 4.75 | value: +51% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.5 | 52% | 1.87 |
| Rochdale +0.5 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 52% | 1.86 |
| Over | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Aaron Wilbraham · Rochdale |
| 41' | ⚽ | Aaron Wilbraham · Rochdale |
| 53' | ⚽ | Paddy Madden · Fleetwood Town |
| 60' | ⚽ | Aaron Wilbraham · Rochdale |
| 65' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Fleetwood Town |
| 88' | 🟨 | Kwadwo Baah · Rochdale |
| 89' | ⚽ | Wes Burns · Fleetwood Town |
| 90' | 🟨 | Eoghan O'Connell · Rochdale |
| 90' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Fleetwood Town |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 5 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Rochdale | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | Crown Oil Arena |
| coach days | 300.00 | 693.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.08 | 3.35 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1372.32 | 1480.19 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.75 | -21.85 |
| eye test v1 | -1.08 | -0.57 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.50 | 65.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.46 |
| league points | 22.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.20 | 68.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.20 | 55.40 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.05 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.60 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.16 | -0.46 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 23.58 | 27.10 |
| state index | -0.79 | -0.49 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |