← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 21, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Swabey
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 46% | 42% | 2.10 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 28% | 3.50 | fair |
| Wycombe win | 26% | 30% | 3.75 | value: +12% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford −0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Wycombe −0.25 | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 1.83 |
| Over | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | 🟨 | Adebayo Akinfenwa · Wycombe |
| 23' | ⚽ | James Henry · Oxford |
| 26' | 🟨 | Adebayo Akinfenwa · Wycombe |
| 26' | 🟥 | Adebayo Akinfenwa · Wycombe |
| 27' | 🟨 | John Mousinho · Oxford |
| 27' | 🟨 | Alex Gorrin · Oxford |
| 44' | 🟨 | Matt Bloomfield · Wycombe |
| 72' | 🟨 | Robert Dickie · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mark Sykes · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joe Jacobson · Wycombe |
| 90' | 🟨 |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 0 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Oxford | Wycombe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| venue | The Kassam Stadium |
| Nnamdi Ofoborh · Wycombe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 660.00 | 1937.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1518.07 | 1525.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.18 | 41.78 |
| eye test v1 | 0.32 | -0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.30 | 61.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.83 |
| league points | 30.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.40 | 56.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 55.40 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.58 | 2.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 10.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.31 | -2.77 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| state index | 0.49 | 0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | -1.60 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.20 |