← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Dec 14, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: C. Breakspear
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rotherham win | 62% | 57% | 1.57 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 23% | 4.50 | value: +5% |
| Southend win | 16% | 19% | 6.00 | value: +16% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Rotherham +1 | 50% | 1.94 |
| Southend +1 | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.63 |
| Under | 41% | 2.38 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | ⚽ (og) | Rob Kiernan · Rotherham |
| 37' | 🟨 | Daniel Barlaser · Rotherham |
| 42' | 🟨 | Michael Smith · Rotherham |
| 48' | 🟨 | Chiedozie Ogbene · Rotherham |
| 49' | ⚽ (pen) | Jason Dimitriou · Southend |
| 52' | ⚽ | Sam Mantom · Southend |
| 60' | ⚽ | Freddie Ladapo · Rotherham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Brandon Goodship · Southend |
| 80' | 🟨 | Michael Ihiekwe · Rotherham |
| 80' | 🟨 | Clark Robertson · Rotherham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 14 |
| 13 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southend | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | Roots Hall |
| coach days | 74.00 | 1138.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1267.07 | 1499.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.16 | 7.07 |
| eye test v1 | -0.81 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.90 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.48 | 0.73 |
| league points | 6.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 11.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.40 | 59.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.30 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -8.00 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | -2.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| state index | -1.82 | 0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.12 | -1.50 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 2.40 |