← EFL League One 2019-20 · Tue, Oct 22, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: J. Smith
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doncaster win | 53% | 44% | 1.83 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 27% | 4.01 | value: +8% |
| Southend win | 22% | 30% | 4.33 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southend +0.75 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Doncaster +0.75 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | 🟨 | Donervon Daniels · Doncaster |
| 6' | 🟥 | Ethan Hamilton · Southend |
| 11' | ⚽ | Isaac Hutchinson · Southend |
| 23' | ⚽ | Kwame Thomas · Doncaster |
| 26' | ⚽ (og) | Nathan Ralph · Doncaster |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kwame Thomas · Doncaster |
| 53' | 🟥 | Stephen McLaughlin · Southend |
| 60' | 🟨 | Mark Milligan · Southend |
| 67' | 🟨 | Harry Lennon · Southend |
| 70' | ⚽ | Benjamin Whiteman · Doncaster |
| 82' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 6 | Shots | 31 |
| 2 | On target | 12 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southend | Doncaster |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.20 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.48 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Roots Hall |
| ⚽ |
| Kieran Sadlier · Doncaster |
| 89' | ⚽ | Alfie May · Doncaster |
| 90' | ⚽ (og) | Nathan Ralph · Doncaster |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 21.00 | 113.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.03 | 2.82 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1303.49 | 1515.88 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.30 | -2.46 |
| eye test v1 | -0.98 | -0.19 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 49.20 | 59.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.27 | 0.73 |
| league points | 5.00 | 19.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 62.80 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.40 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.38 | 1.58 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 4.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.40 | 18.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.70 | 0.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| state index | -1.21 | -0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |