← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: L. Doughty
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham win | 54% | 47% | 1.80 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 26% | 3.90 | fair |
| Southend win | 21% | 27% | 4.77 | value: +28% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Southend −0.75 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Gillingham −0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 52% | 1.86 |
| Under | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 43' | ⚽ | Alfie Jones · Gillingham |
| 46' | ⚽ | Stuart O'Keefe · Gillingham |
| 57' | 🟨 | Barry Fuller · Gillingham |
| 58' | ⚽ | Simon Cox · Southend |
| 63' | 🟨 | Emile Acquah · Southend |
| 66' | 🟨 | Emile Acquah · Southend |
| 66' | 🟥 | Emile Acquah · Southend |
| 71' | 🟨 | Elvis Bwomono · Southend |
| 71' | 🟨 | Harry Lennon · Southend |
| 81' | 🟨 | Rob Kiernan · Southend |
| 87' | ⚽ |
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 18 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Gillingham | Southend |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.41 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Priestfield Stadium |
| Brandon Hanlan · Gillingham |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 157.00 | 4.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.89 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| elo | 1425.96 | 1327.31 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.34 | -16.44 |
| eye test v1 | -0.09 | -0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.20 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.11 | 50.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.62 |
| league points | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 65.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.50 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.80 | 9.60 |
| skill v1 | -2.13 | -1.68 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.33 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| state index | -0.60 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.22 | -0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |