← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Oct 5, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Coy
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxford win | 44% | 36% | 2.22 | fair |
| Accrington win | 30% | 36% | 3.25 | value: +18% |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.75 | value: +3% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Oxford +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Accrington +0.25 | 49% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 55% | 1.77 |
| Under | 45% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | ⚽ | Tariqe Fosu-Henry · Oxford |
| 31' | 🟨 | Sam Finley · Accrington |
| 44' | 🟨 | Callum Johnson · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jerome Opoku · Accrington |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jamie Mackie · Oxford |
| 45' | 🟨 | James Henry · Oxford |
| 59' | ⚽ | Jordan Clark · Accrington |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jordan Clark · Accrington |
| 70' | ⚽ | Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 73' | ⚽ | Offrande Zanzala · Accrington |
| 79' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 16 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Accrington | Oxford |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.55 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Wham Stadium |
| 🟨 |
| Cameron Brannagan · Oxford |
| 89' | 🟨 | Matty Taylor · Oxford |
| 90' | 🟨 | Seamus Conneely · Accrington |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 2560.00 | 583.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.27 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 4.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| elo | 1404.89 | 1487.87 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.04 | 37.71 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.23 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.23 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.78 | 64.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.68 |
| league points | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 66.40 | 73.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.43 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 1.36 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.11 | -0.12 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.44 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.58 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |