← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 28, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peterboro win | 64% | 54% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 26% | 4.59 | value: +20% |
| AFC Wimbledon win | 15% | 19% | 6.55 | value: +27% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Peterboro −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| AFC Wimbledon −1 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.69 |
| Under | 43% | 2.25 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Kwesi Appiah · AFC Wimbledon |
| 29' | ⚽ | Marcus Maddison · Peterboro |
| 33' | 🟨 | Ryan Delaney · AFC Wimbledon |
| 38' | 🟨 | Luke O'Neill · AFC Wimbledon |
| 41' | ⚽ | Mohamed Eisa · Peterboro |
| 44' | 🟨 | Callum Reilly · AFC Wimbledon |
| 50' | 🟨 | Anthony Wordsworth · AFC Wimbledon |
| 52' | ⚽ | Mitchell Pinnock · AFC Wimbledon |
| 66' | ⚽ | Mohamed Eisa · Peterboro |
| 78' | ⚽ | Anthony Wordsworth · AFC Wimbledon |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 25 | Shots | 12 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 7 |
| 11 | Fouls | 19 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Peterboro | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Weston Homes Stadium |
| coach days | 270.00 | 331.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1509.43 | 1353.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.19 | -27.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | -1.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.67 | 67.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.83 | 0.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.72 |
| league points | 14.00 | 3.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 11.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 57.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 42.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 0.30 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.68 | -2.52 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.22 | 2.78 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 24.07 | 23.28 |
| state index | 0.63 | -1.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.91 | -1.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |