← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: J. Busby
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town win | 53% | 38% | 1.85 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.70 | value: +5% |
| Southend win | 21% | 33% | 4.75 | value: +59% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town +0.5 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Southend +0.5 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 55% | 1.75 |
| Over | 45% | 2.15 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | 🟨 | Peter Clarke · Fleetwood Town |
| 17' | ⚽ | Stephen McLaughlin · Southend |
| 32' | 🟨 | Rob Kiernan · Southend |
| 34' | ⚽ | Jimmy Dunne · Fleetwood Town |
| 45' | ⚽ | Josh Morris · Fleetwood Town |
| 48' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Southend |
| 52' | ⚽ | Kyle Dempsey · Fleetwood Town |
| 78' | 🟨 | Wes Burns · Fleetwood Town |
| 78' | 🟨 | Paul Coutts · Fleetwood Town |
| 87' | ⚽ | Stephen Humphrys · Southend |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 4 |
| 10 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Southend | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Roots Hall |
| coach days | 13.00 | 590.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1326.51 | 1478.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -62.74 | -7.54 |
| eye test v1 | -0.87 | 0.25 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.33 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.25 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.54 | — |
| league points | 0.00 | 13.00 |
| league rank | 23.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 20.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.40 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.00 | 58.20 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 0.00 | 1.86 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.41 | 0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 4.57 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.80 |
| state index | -1.62 | -0.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.09 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |