← EFL League One 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: S. Stockbridge
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Rotherham win | 73% | 70% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.75 | value: +14% |
| Bolton win | 9% | 10% | 12.00 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Rotherham −1.5 | 51% | 1.92 |
| Bolton −1.5 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 24 | Shots | 6 |
| 9 | On target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | AESSEAL New York Stadium |